Africa’s Leadership renewal: A facade of Transitional Democracy

Africa is currently grappling and coming to terms with the seemingly interesting news that Africa’s second long serving President, José Eduardo dos Santos will step down after current country elections. This is after 38 years of plunder and self-accumulation of wealth.as part of a “peaceful” transition dos Santos has handpicked his ally, Defence Minister João Lourenço to be his successor. Given the past dominance of the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), Lourenco is likely to win the Presidential election. Under the new arrangement dos Santos will remain the President of his party, the ruling until at least 2021. This alone vests considerable power in him including power to choose parliamentary candidates. Earlier this month, parliament also passed legislation safeguarding dos Santos’ picks at the head of Defence and intelligence services.

While this is cause for celebration in terms of leadership renewal in Africa’s tainted history of military coups, dos Santos’ invisible hand of control will continue to dog Lourenco’s administration at least for the foreseeable future. The appointed new president is just a ceremonial president with no power of decision. Stepping down by dos Santos is meant to deceive Africa yet the truth is that he is still in control. Closely linked to this is the passing of new laws by government last month which prevent the next president from firing the military, police, and intelligence chiefs.

Just like past and present African presidents, dos Santos has also created an empire and dynasty for his family during his 38-year tenure at the helm. While he remains party president, his daughter Isabel will stay in charge of Sonangol, the state oil company, after being appointed in June 2016, and Jose Filomeno, dos Santos’ son, will remain in charge of Angola’s $5 billion sovereign wealth fund.

The developments in Angola are not new but have happened elsewhere across the world. In Cuba long serving President, Fidel Castro, who in his early 30s, aligned Cuba with the Soviet Union and used Cuban troops to support revolution in Africa and throughout Latin America, appointed his brother Raul Castro as his successor. In Venezuela, the late President Hugo Chavez credited for initiating a leftist political process, Bolivarian Revolution, appointed a former driver, Nicolás Maduro as his successor in 2013.To date the administrations both in Cuba and Venezuela have been accused of diverting from the script and plunging the two countries into retrogression in terms of previous gains by their predecessors. Their failure has also been largely to the ever unpredictable webs of patronage and business interests left by their predecessors, making them vulnerable to exposure.

So yes, the stepping down by dos Santos should not be celebrated beyond its normal confines as doing so is akin to applying lipstick to a frog. The new President Lourenco will take over from where dos Santos left and will not even seek to antagonize the current status quo. So, given the mixed experiences with the contentious but yet necessary debate of transition in African countries, we can also identify a trend where incumbent presidents have continued to grip on power by any means necessary by appointing loyal and subservient successors. Ghana should be credited for managing peaceful transitions since 1992 and today its credited for this. This is of course outside other African countries such as South Africa that have done well in this regard.

Will Mugabe ever choose a successor?

Recently, First Lady Grace Mugabe shocked the nation when she announced that it was noble for President Mugabe to choose and anoint a successor. In her own words, she said that,” the president has the right to be involved in naming his successor, and that the president’s word is final. “Since the 1990s ZANU PF members who have dared raise this controversial subject of succession have either been disciplined or expelled. What is important to note is the underlying meaning of First Lady’s sentiments. Firstly, her sentiments imply that she has finally conceded that her husband will not be there forever to offer her protection. Secondly, while its necessary for party members to debate about it, her husband must name successor and whoever that successor will be, he or she will serve at the mercy of the President. Thirdly, given in the recent past, she has demonstrated both influence and authority in the dismissal and public humiliation of party cadres who at one point were untouchable, the likely successor will also serve at her pleasure. This is more so because naturally, there is no way Mugabe will appoint a vengeful foe who is unpredictable and likely to torment and scuttle wealth accumulated by his family.

Just like the case in Angola, Mugabe’s invisible hand even from beyond the grave will continue to dictate decisions for any ZANU PF administration in the future. In the event that Mugabe does indeed appoint a successor, it will be a mere perpetuation of his rule.

When discussing about transition in Zimbabwe, succession is a puzzle that we cannot avoid. This article is not about who will emerge the ultimate successor within ZANU PF’s succession matrix but about the precedence in Africa where leaders still remote control events even from their graves. What even makes succession interesting is Mugabe’s reluctance to name a successor even when there are overwhelming signs of fatigue and incapacity on his part. The delay in naming a successor even at a ripe age of 94 reveals the continued thirst and appetite to continue ruling even when the body gives off its ghost.

Close cronies who have worked with Mugabe over the years have all revealed how power hungry Mugabe is. In his book, The Story of My Life, former Vice President Joshua Nkomo, confessed that he once asked Mugabe a question over what was the supreme organ in the country. To this, Mugabe replied that it was the ZANU PF Central Committee. This was at the height of the Gukurahundi atrocities in Matabeleland and the Midlands region after Nkomo was dismissed from government. After his subsequent dismissal from ZANU PF, former ZANU PF Secretary General, Edgar Tekere simply remarked that “Democracy is in the intensive unit”. All this points to the fact that Mugabe is willing to maintain power at any costs.

In the final analysis, Zimbabwe has reached a defining moment in as far as transition is concerned. The calls for Mugabe to name a successor are growing louder with each passing day. Even if he does concede and names his successor, he will likely name a candidate who will be loyal to him even in his retirement. It will just be a mere perpetuation of his rule just like the case in Angola.

Rawlings Magede writes here in his personal capacity. He tweets @raw edges and can be contacted onvamagede@gmail.com